If you listened to the As For Football Army Football Show this week, you heard us discuss a long statistical comparison between Army and the Fighting Irish. By mid-show, we’d realized that our list had gotten too long; we should’ve run it in print.
Thankfully, our last word this week comes in print. As promised, then, we now present that long statistical comparison from this week’s show.
Happy T-1 to “Beat Notre Dame Saturday.” pic.twitter.com/kaGdZaDNiI
— James A. Gagliano (@JamesAGagliano) November 22, 2024
Army vs. Notre Dame in the College Football Rankings
The Army Black Knights:
#1 rushing offense (335 yards/game on 6.2 yards/carry)
#1 red zone defense (8 touchdowns & 2 field goals in *20* opponent trips)
#1 in interceptions throw (just 1 all year)
#1 in passing yards/completion (18.7)
#1 in sacks allowed (3)
#2 scoring defense (10.3 points/game allowed)
#2 in tackles-for-loss allowed (2.4/game)
#2 third down offense (53.5% conversion rate)
#2 fourth down offense (84.2% with at least two uncontested kneel-downs)
#3 rushing defense (82.6 rushing yards/game on 3.2 yards/carry)
#3 in first down defense
#6 turnover margin (+11)
#6 in fewest penalties/game (4.2)
#7 in fumbles lost (2 in 9 games)
Tied for #9 in interceptions (14)
#14 Red Zone offense (30 touchdowns & 5 field goals in 38 trips)
#22 scoring offense (35.2 points/game)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish:
#2 in turnover margin (+15)
#3 scoring defense (11.4 points/game)
#4 in red zone defense (10 touchdowns & 5 field goals on 22 opponent trips)
#5 in first down defense
#6 3rd down defense (28.9% conversions allowed)
Tied for #6 in interceptions thrown (4 all year)
#7 in interceptions (15)
#11 scoring offense (38 points/game)
#18 4th down defense (11/28; 39.3%)
Tied for #19 in team sacks (2.8/game)
#42 rushing defense (126.2 yards/game on 3.5 yards/carry)
Obviously, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison given the disparity in strengths-of-schedule. We’ve heard all week ad nauseum about how much bigger, stronger, and faster Notre Dame’s players will be than Army’s. The national media seems obsessed on this point.
How, then, can Army win this week?
Find out below with our Keys to Victory.
Traditional road look for Saturday night in the Bronx.
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 21, 2024
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Three Keys to Victory against Notre Dame
We kept it simple this week.
Contain QB Riley Leonard in the Pocket
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard is a running quarterback. The Irish coaching staff tried initially to make him a pocket passer, but through the first two games, that didn’t look great. The staff finally turned him loose to run the read-option and use his legs aggressively after their loss to Northern Illinois, and he’s been a completely different guy since that decision.
Against Texas A&M, Leonard went 18/30 passing (60%) for all of 158 yards, though he also carried 12 times for 63 yards. But those were mostly scrambles outside of the structure of the offense. Against NIU, he went 20/32 (62.5%) for 163 yards and 2 interceptions while carrying just 11 times for all of 16 yards. The staff then changed the offense ahead of the Purdue game. Using the read-option, Leonard posted 100 yards rushing and 3 rushing touchdowns on just 11 carries that week, setting himself up for a hyper-efficient 11/16 passing performance through the air (69%), though he threw for just over 100 yards total.
He was still the same guy, but once Notre Dame started using his strengths, they got better production from him. This might ultimately hurt Leonard’s draft stock — it definitely will — but it sure as hell helped the Irish win football games, too.
Bottom line, NIU is the only one team all season that has managed to bottle Leonard up in the pocket, and they beat these guys. Part of their success came because of the way Notre Dame tried to run their offense that week, but the point remains. If Army wants to beat Notre Dame, that has to start with forcing him to play from the pocket. If the Irish get their read-option rushing attack going, Army will struggle to keep this game close.
The good news, then, is that Army plays more option football defense than any team in college football. So we’ll see how it goes.
Congrats @CoachJeffMonken 🫡
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 19, 2024
Our leader was selected as @WeAreAFCA Region I Coach of the Year on Tuesday 👏👏👏
→ https://t.co/q0JSNlGERe pic.twitter.com/0qxV41kZXf
Force Notre Dame to Score in the Red Zone
In many ways, this game sets up a lot like the North Texas game. Leonard might be a dangerous quarterback, but he is in no way more dangerous than UNT QB Chandler Morris. In fact, Morris is a much better passer by every measure. However, Leonard has an astronomically superior supporting cast. Where UNT had just the one true breakaway threat in WR D.T. Sheffield, Notre Dame has four and five stars all over the field.
Unfortunately, that matters a lot.
We know how Army is going to try to deal with this. They are going to play off the ball, give up short throws from the pocket, and try their damndest not to get beat deep. This plays opposite to Leonard’s strengths, which is good. Then, once the game condenses down into the red zone, Notre Dame’s sheer speed advantage will mean less, and Army’s discipline advantage will mean more.
If the Black Knights give up a bunch of explosive scoring plays, they will lose this game. If they force Notre Dame to drive the length of the field and score in the red zone, Army will have a chance to play their own strengths. In that case, anything can happen.
Up to 1️⃣9️⃣ in @CFBPlayoff Rankings 📈#GoArmy x #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/YhZVAFl7aI
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 20, 2024
Win the Turnover Battle
Neither of these teams turn the ball over much. If Army wants to win, they can’t afford to turn the ball over at all.
This is how NIU did it. They forced Leonard to play from the pocket, took advantage of his mistakes playing within structure, and ran the damn ball. Army has exactly the kind of team to make that plan work as well, but of course, they still have to execute.
With that said, this *is* a winnable game. If the Black Knights play their brand of football successfully, they have every chance on Saturday night.
Final Thoughts
We’ve heard nothing all week but how this Fighting Irish team is absolutely, world-beatingly unstoppable. The nation’s sportswriters have just jobbed this game, giving the Black Knights no chance in Hell.
Has the Army Team heard this?
We suspect that they have. And after nine weeks of rolling everyone and hearing nothing but how great they all are, we think maybe it’s made an impact, too.
If you play at Army, you’ve only ever wanted a chance. Well, friends, these guys get that chance this weekend. Speaking personally, I think they’ll come through.
Support the extraordinary Division I Cadet-Athlete experience this Tuesday, December 3rd.
— ArmyWestPoint Sports (@GoArmyWestPoint) November 19, 2024
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I believe in these Black Knights.
For the rest, we’re looking forward to you finding out.
Go Army! Beat Notre Dame!!!
Cover image via USMA Flickr.
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