We’ve put the bye week blues behind us, and now — finally! — it’s Air Force Week! Your Army Black Knights (7-0) take on a Falcons squad (1-6) that hasn’t won a regular season game against an FBS opponent since the Black Knights ended their 13-game winning streak around this time last year. But like the Army Team that beat a ranked Air Force last year in Denver, this Falcons team will be playing with nothing to lose against a ranked service academy rival. They will surely be out for blood.
This is the first time since 2018 that a Michie Stadium crowd will get to watch Army play Air Force. In 2020, Covid prevented a public crowd. In 2022, we held the game in Arlington, TX. So for the first time in six years, the Army faithful actually get to experience a home Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy game.
1️⃣1️⃣ wins in the last calendar year. pic.twitter.com/Jf3jzE4ORy
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) October 29, 2024
Air Force Falcons
Air Force is having quite the off-year. They ranked dead last in returning production last offseason, and it shows. This year’s Falcons team is on track to have its worst rushing season since 1981. But that’s what can happen when a service academy offensive line returns a total of zero starts from a year ago.
Offense
Army leads the nation in running plays, rushing on 87% of their offensive snaps. Predictably, Navy stands second at 77%. Air Force is in third at 76%. As we might expect, Army also leads the nation in rushing yards with an average of 359 rushing yards/game. Air Force, though, is gaining only 195 yards/game, good for 31st in the FBS. And it’s not as if they’re making up for that lost production in the passing game. They’re only throwing for 100 yards/game total. That’s just 295 yards of total offense per game, putting them 127th of 133 teams in FBS college football.
QB John Busha has started throughout the year, but he got benched for a pair of backups against New Mexico and then Colorado State. Both of those backups, QBs Quentin Hayes and Josh Johnson, showed some life against the Lobos, but not enough to overcome a 52-point New Mexico performance. It’s anyone’s guess who the Falcons will roll out on Saturday, but Hayes has the best stat line of the three.
If there’s a bright spot on this offense, it’s senior WR Cade Harris. The offense hasn’t been able to utilize him as much as they’d like, but when he gets the ball, he’s averaging 12 yards/catch and nearly 6 yards/carry.
Army’s defense won’t be playing bend-don’t-break against an option team. Expect the Black Knights to be aggressive up front in this one and to really get after both the triple-option mesh-point and whoever starts for the Zoomies whenever they drop back to pass.
Defense
The Falcon’s defense allows more than 5.1 yards/carry, the 17th worst in the FBS. They have a lot of fresh faces on the defense, and we’re likely to see a number of defensive looks from the Falcons, so trying to key in on particular players might be a futile effort this week. However, this will likely be the biggest, “take what the defense gives you” game the Black Knights have played this year. We expect to see the sideline tablets getting used extensively once the staff gets a chance to see this defense up close.
Last year, Army went to a different offense in part so that they wouldn’t have to change for CIC games. Now they’ve reverted to their traditional flexbone look, but Navy changed their offensive scheme. The biggest question going into the first leg of the CIC was therefore whether Navy would change its offense for this game — and they didn’t. Now we’re asking the same question about the Black Knights. Against ECU, the offensive staff admitted that they didn’t go to the perimeter much because of the Pirate’s safeties and that staff’s specific knowledge of the option.
What’s the game plan adjustment for Air Force? That’s anyone’s guess.
Special Teams
PK Matthew Dapore is perfect on points after tries (PATs) this year, but he’s only 4/7 on field goals. Air Force’s game plan should be to take risks early to try to knock Army out before they can get settled into the game. That’s exactly what Army did to Air Force last year. Thus, we shouldn’t expect a lot of action from Dapore.
The Falcons have split punting suits between Luke Freer and Carson Bay through this season. But as of late, Freer has taken the lion’s share with a whopping 48 yards/punt average. If nothing else, Air Force should have a leg up — pun intended — in the field position game.
Final Thoughts
Army opened as a 23-point favorite this week. That’s is an incredible line for a CIC contest. The line has danced around by a point or so since, but we expect it to remain fairly constant. But make no mistake, that’s a lot of faith in the Army offense! Vegas expects Army to beat Air Force by a larger margin than we’ve seen since way back in 1980!
Remember, though, that just one year ago, Army was the 17-point underdog, and they spoiled Air Force’s perfect season. So while we may expect success, this is surely no time to get cocky.
The game kicks at noon on CBS. It’s the first time since the 2020 Army-Navy Game that a broadcast network will televise a game at Michie Stadium. Before that? You’d have to go all the way back to the 2014 Army-Air Force game.
This is a big game, friends. Come out and get loud to support your team!
Go Army! Beat Air Force!!!
Cover image via USMA Flickr: Army Football takes on the United States Air Force Academy Falcons at Mile High Stadium in Denver, CO. Nov. 4, 2023. (U.S. Army Photo by 2LT Ellington Ward).
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