We’ve got six games on the American Athletic Conference slate this week with plenty on the line for most of the conference’s teams. However, the top of the conference has looked so much better than the conference’s middle or bottom this year that we’re only into the middle part of the season, and we already have a mere handful of teams with realistic shots to make the championship game. Depending on how Tulane fares at North Texas, we might lose one of those contenders this week.
Let’s get into it.
Tulane at North Texas (Noon on ESPN2)
Though Navy’s game against Notre Dame will get most of the headlines, Tulane’s match-up against North Texas matters much more to the overall conference standings. The Green Wave (5-2, 3-0 in the AAC) spent the early part of their season either clearing their calendars for a first round match-up in the College Football Playoff or else measuring their trophy case for another American Conference Championship. They then dropped back-to-back losses to what has turned out to be a mediocre Oklahoma team as well as a much more talented squad from Kansas State. Neither of those losses look shameful, per se, but they collectively served to set Tulane’s ceiling at the Conference Championship.
Then they damned-near lost last week at home to Rice.
With Army and Navy garnering all the conference headlines, reality says that the Green Wave now need to make something happen to regain some of that lost momentum. Thankfully, this week’s contest at North Texas (5-2, 2-1 in the AAC) might get that done, especially given how exciting the Mean Green have been on offense.
For North Texas, this game represents their chance to control their own destiny. If they win this week, they’ll be an upset against Army away from having a very real shot at the conference championship game despite last week’s loss at Memphis. Oh by the way, they also have a bye before that Army game. From there, they’ll have relatively smooth sailing against UTSA, ECU, and Temple. By comparison, Tulane still has to play Navy and Memphis.
If North Texas can win this week, the rest will almost certainly take care of itself. However, if Tulane wins, the Mean Green are out, and depending on how things look on the scoreboard, the Green Wave might recapture the conference pole position, too.
#12 Notre Dame at #24 Navy (Noon on ABC)
These teams play every year. The Squids (6-0, 4-0 in the AAC) put the game at MetLife Stadium for whatever reason this year, depriving their season ticket holders of an exciting home match-up. Given the hype their season has garnered, that decision* looks even more questionable right now.
What can you do?
SP+ makes Notre Dame (6-1) an almost three touchdown favorite. As of this writing, however, the betting line is just Navy (+11.5). Do with that what you will. We’ll just note that Navy punted six times in last week’s win over Charlotte, and that if we dive into the numbers, we’ll find that the Mids have a decidedly boom-or-bust offense. They don’t make first downs; they break explosive plays for touchdowns against busted coverage. So while anything can happen in college football, a bet on Navy this week is a bet on the Irish giving up a ton of explosive plays for touchdowns.
Charlotte at Memphis (Noon on ESPNU)
We bought into 49ers (3-4, 2-1 in the AAC) a little too much after they laid a whuppin’ on ECU two weeks ago. We then saw the real Charlotte last week at Navy.
Meanwhile, the Tigers (6-1, 2-1 in the AAC) already used up all their grace this season, and more to the point, they seem to know it. Memphis can still win the conference, but only if they win all the rest of their conference games. With that in mind, expect Memphis to come ready to make a statement this Saturday.
Temple at ECU (2:00 pm on ESPN+)
Temple (2-5, 1-2 in the AAC) has played better as the season has progressed, but it looks like their turnaround might’ve come a little too late. They can even get to .500 in the conference with a win over ECU (3-4, 1-2 in the AAC). However, the Pirates just fired their coach, and a lot of teams get a bounce coming off a change in leadership.
Coaching chaos notwithstanding, ECU can still make a bowl game. That seemed likely just one week ago. Now? Well, we ought to learn something this Saturday.
Rice at UConn (3:30 pm on CBS Sports)
Like Temple, Rice (2-5, 1-3 in the AAC) also improved over the course of the season, and also like Temple, their turnaround might’ve come a little too late.
Oh by the way, UConn (4-3, 4-1 at home) has also played better down the stretch, and they actually play really good football when they’re at home. Having beaten the pants off of Buffalo and dropped a very close home loss to Wake Forest, it’s hard to imagine the Huskies losing at home to Rice. As noted, however, anything can happen on a college football Saturday.
UTSA at Tulsa (3:30 pm on ESPN+)
UTSA (3-4, 1-2 in the AAC) should get back to .500 this week against Tulsa (2-5, 0-3 in the AAC). However, the Roadrunners will need to beat a resurgent Temple team and upset either Memphis, North Texas, or Army if they want to get back to a bowl game.
Maybe that will seem likely after Saturday’s game…? We can talk about it then.
Culture Pillar of the Week: Physical Toughness 💪#210TriangleOfToughness #GTS12 | #BirdsUp🤙 pic.twitter.com/nMM3po6mgz
— UTSA Football 🏈 (@UTSAFTBL) October 22, 2024
That’s all we’ve got! Enjoy the games this weekend!
Go Army! Beat Air Force!!!
Cover image via @MeanGreenFB.
*Editor’s Note: “Notre Dame‘s agreement to play Navy every year includes the stipulation that they will not play at Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. This means that they will choose neutral sites that I believe are agreed to be beneficial to both sides. That’s why the game has been in Jacksonville, Florida, San Diego, Washington DC, etc. so despite what seems to be a fun distaste from a few of your fans towards our athletic department, this was not a choice by the athletic department to forgo a home game.”
— via an anonymous Navy fan on Twitter.
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