Friends, the Army Black Knights face an excellent defensive team this weekend in Rice. This matters because the Owls’ offense has had some trouble capitalizing on their defense’s success throughout most of the early part of this season. But this remains a well-coached and talented team, so that’s unlikely to last forever. At some point, Rice is gonna turn things around this season.
But. If the Black Knights can stay on their Keys to Victory, they should be able to prevent Rice’s resurgence from starting this weekend.
The last time Rice visited West Point was in 2019.
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) September 19, 2024
We extended our winning streak to 10 games and our home winning streak to 14 with the 14-7 victory.
Roll the tape 🎥 pic.twitter.com/zd4sUElMxB
Keys To Victory vs. the Rice Owls
Stop Rice RB Dean Connors
Connors is by far the best offensive player for the Owls. He’s averaging a whopping 6.2 yards/carry, and he also leads the team in receptions with 18 for 81 yards.
Connors may not be the whole freaking show for Rice, but he’s definitely their centerpiece. If he gets going, Rice’s offense will get going. If Army can hold him in check, Rice’s short passing game will probably not be enough to make up the difference in other ways, especially considering Army’s typical bend-but-don’t-break style.
Teams that have beaten Rice this season have kept Connors from running wild. The one team that let him run wild got beaten, 69-7.
Bottom line: if Army can stop RB Dean Connors, they ought to win this game.
Hold Onto the Football
Since 2015, only two teams have found a way to win at Michie Stadium without winning the turnover battle — 2019 Tulane and 2023 Boston College. Both of those teams featured outstanding running quarterbacks who could complete passes both inside and outside of structure. Rice QB E.J. Warner might also get to that point later this season, but as of this writing, he has not yet been that guy.
If the Owls want to win this game, they will need to win the turnover battle. They have an excellent defense, but so far, they have just 2 interceptions on the season and have yet to recover a fumble.
Army can make this work, even against a good rushing defense. They can win this game the way they always win games — by holding onto the football, gradually wearing away at the opposition, and then pulling away late.
But that only works if the Black Knights take care of the football. They absolutely cannot afford to give up any cheap points to a team looking to establish its identity on the road.
Stay Patient and Stay Resilient
As we’ve stressed repeatedly, this Rice team has a terrific defense. They’ve forced an awful lot of punts this season, even from excellent offensive teams, and they will almost certainly force a few more this Saturday. The Black Knights cannot afford to get impatient and try to force things. Rice will make some plays. If those plays force Army mistakes or crazy passing attempts in known passing situations, that’s trouble.
This Rice team has put up an outstanding *14* sacks in just three games. They will 100% sack Army QB Bryson Daily on known passing downs. Army therefore wins this game by staying patient on offense, by playing sound defense, and by taking whatever opportunities present themselves as the game wears on.
Rice does not have a winning record, and folks may therefore be expecting this game to turn into a blowout. As a matter of reality, however, that’s not the most likely outcome this weekend. Instead, we’re almost certainly in for a tough match-up against a well-prepared team that will keep things tight on the back of an excellent defensive effort and an improving offense. Army can and should win this game by doing what they do, but they cannot afford to try to force it. They have to play their game and then maximize opportunities wherever those opportunities happen to show up.
Final Thoughts
This should be an awesome weekend of football, featuring terrific weather and — God willing — a home win at Michie Stadium. Let’s all enjoy it!
We’ll see you out there.
Go Army! Beat Rice!!!
Cover image via Flickr: The U.S. Military Academy
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