Well friends, we’ve reached Week 4 of As For Football’s preview of the 2023 Army Football Season. After what we hope is a fast start leading to a successful middle-of-the-season run, your Army Black Knights will look to finish strong with home games against Patriot League foe Holy Cross and Sun Belt powerhouse Coastal Carolina as well as those stinky Squids from the Boat School.
In case you’ve missed any of our other articles in this series, those are archived below:
— Army Football Preview: 2023 Season Preview (First Quarter)
— Army Football Preview: 2023 Season Preview (Second Quarter)
— Army Football Preview: 2023 Season Preview (Third Quarter)
We're down to single-digit Saturdays until 🏈 🙌
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) July 1, 2023
9️⃣ more to go!#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/U2oUjkvaOx
2023 Season Preview: Fourth Quarter
Week 12: Holy Cross Crusaders
2022 Record: 12-1 (6-0 in the Patriot League; PL Champs)
SP+: N/A
FPI: N/A
Holy Cross went an outstanding 11-0 through the regular season last year then won a playoff game to advance to the FCS Championship Semi-Finals. QB Matthew Sluka went 153/266 passing for 2,491 yards (57.5%) and a whopping 26 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions, though he also took fully *26* sacks. The Crusaders run a super-heavy read-option offense, meaning that Sluka also led the team in rushing — both overall and on a per-carry basis — with 203 carries for 1,234 yards (6.1 yards/carry) and 11 rushing touchdowns. This man did it all!
Patriot League teams have not always had the world’s easiest time staying at the top of the League for whatever reason, but this squad was very good last year, and they return a lot of the pieces that made them successful. That should make them the favorites to win the League again in 2023, assuming Sluka can stay healthy.
Projected Line: N/A
Army tends to schedule the kinds of FCS games that most teams try to avoid. This ought to be exactly that kind of game, too, with a strong running team that’s also good at stopping the run heading into Michie Stadium looking to make a statement. This remains a game that the Black Knights should win, though it comes off the back of a tough section in the overall schedule.
We’re all gonna be plenty nervous heading into this one, I’m sure.
Keep making history. #GoCrossGo pic.twitter.com/2y9Jm9lAdf
— Holy Cross Football (@HCrossFB) December 3, 2022
Week 13: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
2022 Record: 9-4 (6-2 in the Sun Belt-East; lost to ECU in the Birmingham Bowl)
SP+: -4.6 (75th)
FPI: -4.3 (83rd)
Of all the teams on the schedule this year, Coastal may be the hardest to predict. Former Head Coach Jamey Chadwell built the program into a monster, but now he’s off to Liberty, and while star QB Grayson McCall returns, the Chanticleers have lost some important pieces elsewhere. This includes their best defensive linemen to Michigan, their former center to North Carolina, and their former safety to East Carolina. The Chants return some great skill position players, but they’ll still need McCall to stay healthy, and they’ll need their run defense to find its way back despite key losses.
New Head Coach Tim Beck is expected to keep Coastal a heavy run-first offense, but he’s not expected to keep the Chants’ unique version of the triple-option, and it seems doubtful that he’ll let McCall take the ball himself over much. It’ll be interesting, then, to see how the team takes to the change. McCall has been an incredibly accurate passer — 70% completion percentage! — but that was no doubt helped by the Chants’ scheme. That number might well go down if the Chants throw more as part of a more traditional spread-type scheme.
Projected Line: Army (+1.3)
Coastal was a great team last year until McCall got hurt. Then the wheels came off. Coastal just barely eked out a win over Southern Miss. in a down year then lost their last three — badly. Friends, every year is a new year. Still, I think you’d rather play the Chants late in the season rather than early, and you’d much rather play them at home. Army in particular caught these guys at exactly the wrong time last season.
Despite the hype of the last few seasons, the betting line has the right of things. This ought to be a close game.
Fun in the sun 🏋️ #FAM1LY | #BALLATTHEBEACH | #TEALNATION pic.twitter.com/MJ2aY4Ej33
— Coastal Football (@CoastalFootball) June 30, 2023
Weeks 14 & 15: Bye Week
We’re back to taking two bye weeks before Army-Navy. No games scheduled for Rivalry Weekend, alas.
Some Monday motivation to start the week 🔊🔊🔊 pic.twitter.com/5MjEKNndgU
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) July 3, 2023
Week 16: Navy Squids
2022 Record: 4-8 (4-4 in the American Conference)
SP+: -11.1 (98th)
FPI: -9.3 (108th)
If Coastal isn’t the hardest team to predict on Army’s schedule, then Navy is. The Squids have a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator, though they still somehow have the same quarterbacks coach.
Go figure.
Like Army, Navy is transitioniing their offense to a hybrid shotgun approach, though unlike Army, they are also trying to retain elements of the flexbone triple within their base scheme. This is an interesting idea, but one wonders if there’s going to be enough time to actually focus on everything, or if this is gonna be one of those things where the Mids are almost good at lots of stuff but not very good at anything. After all, this is exactly the kind of Athletic Department that will mandate stuff like offensive schemes to the coaching staff. But I guess we’ll see.
Projected Line: Army (-1.5)
Whatever Navy looks like when the season opens, they will no doubt have their stuff together by the time we get into December. At a minimum, they’ll have an outstanding rushing defense and a better pass rush than you might expect, so who knows? Maybe they’ll get that short passing game working, too. Not sure I’m expecting that, especially while splitting time working on the flexbone, but December is a long way away.
All other factors aside, expect a close game when we finally get to Boston for Army-Navy.
WE’RE SINGING SECOND!!#GoArmy | #BEATnavy pic.twitter.com/ADyHnMhtz3
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) December 10, 2022
Bowl Tie-In: ESPN As-Needed Bowl
The Black Knights don’t have a specific bowl tie-in this year. Instead, they’ll go where needed by ESPN in order to make the four-letter network’s overall TV schedule work. That’s not super-exciting at this stage, but it’s also not too different from what we’ve seen over the last few years, either.
Besides, the Black Knights will need to get bowl eligible first.
‘Find a Way to Win’: Jeff Monken, Army and the pursuit of modern football warfare https://t.co/nkDFWbXttg pic.twitter.com/3l4FhBjvAK
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) June 29, 2023
Final Thoughts
Army has a harder schedule than we’ve seen in recent years, but they also have more than a few winnable games, and they have every chance to finish strong. Barring something strange, even the Coastal Carolina game might see the betting line within a field goal. That’s good!
Granted, we’ve got a lot of football to play between now and the last quarter of the season. Still, I think this ought to be one to remember.
⛓💪⛓#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/GYBPxan9qv
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) June 28, 2023
Go Army! Beat ULM!!!
Cover image vis USMA Flickr.
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