Army is officially going bowling for the first time since beating Mizzou in the 2021** Armed Forces Bowl. The Black Knights sealed their sixth win of the year with their first 500+ yard performance of the campaign while allowing just 10 points. Oh yeah, they also still have the nation’s longest winning streak, having won 10 straight games.
Your 6-0 Black Knights offer another opportunity for the Michie Stadium faithful this week. Indeed, this is the first time that a ranked Army team will play on the Banks of the Husdon since 1960!
Perhaps the most important statistic that has contributed to Army’s undefeated record to this point comes from how they play with a lead. If you look at the first two drives of each game, Army has scored touchdowns on 11/12 of them. The Black Knights are the only team in the country to have scored a touchdown on every opening drive. Army has outscored their opponents a combined 132-24 in the first half. And Army is one of just two teams in the country — the other being Indiana — that has never trailed in a game this year.
However. They face a tougher test this week and will need to play their very best football to keep this magical season on track.
East Carolina Pirates
Last year, the Pirates went 1-7 in conference play. But four of those losses came in one-score games. Now, sixth year Head Coach Mike Houston is looking for his third bowl appearance with the program. Currently, ESPN’s FPI gives his 3-3 squad a better than 50% chance of getting there.
ECU comes into Saturday’s game off of a bye week. Combine that with the fact that they’ve allowed just 3.5 yards/carry so far this year, and we have a recipe for Army coaches’ nightmares this week.
Week 8 in NY 🏴☠️ pic.twitter.com/DiD5DLiPWY
— ECU Football (@ECUPiratesFB) October 14, 2024
Offense
QB Jake Garcia has started every game for the Pirates this year. But he got benched in Charlotte’s 55-24 upset rout against ECU two weeks ago. ECU ranks 83rd in scoring offense. But if you only consider FBS opponents, the Pirates have only scored about 20 points/game. Worse, the only times they’ve exceeded 20 points against FBS teams this year have come in losing efforts.
ECU has a balanced offense. They run about half passing plays and about half rushing plays. Consistent with most balanced offenses, they get about two-thirds of their yards passing and about one-third rushing.
There’s no one player that has absolute make-or-break talent on this offense, but this team LOVES chunk plays. The Pirates excel at passing plays between 12-25 yards. This is exactly what you don’t want to hear as an Army fan. Army DC Nate Woody will have to have the red zone defense absolutely rocking this week because ECU has generally moved the ball at will between the 20s.
East Carolina is pretty good at spreading the love with their top 3 receivers, each having posted between 280-300 yards. RB Rahjai Harris accounts for about half of the Pirates’ carries and rushing yards, but ECU runs a super-hurry-up offense that generally employs using just one running back per offensive drive.
Defense
The Pirates rushing defense has been extremely stingy this season. They’re also getting seven extra days to prepare for the triple option. With that, their 3.5 yards/carry allowed might seem a little scary. It’s the best mark we’ve seen from any Army opponent thus far this season. But let’s break it down a little:
Comparing ECU’s yards/carry allowed to Rice’s isn’t fair. The Owls’ stat line includes a game against Army. The Temple Owls have stats that are even more skewed since they’ve played both Army and Navy. So what we really want to know is how ECU stacks up other team’s yards/carry allowed in non-triple option games. Additionally, we need to look at how Army fared against these defenses.
Of course, you know we have you covered on this one.
— FAU – 4.75 ypc; 6.98 against Army (+2.23 ypc)
— Rice – 3.53 ypc; 5.14 against Army (+1.61 ypc)
— Temple – 4.45 ypc; 7.32 against Army (+2.87 ypc)
— Tulsa – 3.63 ypc ; 8.03 against Army (+4.40 ypc)
— UAB – 5.13 ypc; 7.38 against Army (+2.25 ypc)
We see a few interesting things in this data. First, with the exception of Tulsa, the fewer yards/carry a team gives up against other teams, the lower the differential against Army. Thus, lesser rushing defenses seem to get exponentially, not linearly, worse when facing the Black Knights. Second, the closest comparable to ECU seems to be Rice’s defense, who gives up just .06 yards/carry more in non-option games than do the Pirates. If we assume the same differential this week, that would put Army at just over 5 yards/carry this Saturday.
So there’s your litmus test for whether Army’s offense is having a good day. Are they averaging more or fewer than 5 yards/carry?
ECU does a much better job than other Army opponents of making tackles in the trenches. The linebacking duo of Zakye Barber and Mike Edwards III account for nearly 80 tackles. With that, Army’s offensive line will have to make a statement early in order to get this game going in the right direction.
Special Teams
Junior PK Noah Perez took over kicking duties in the last two games after starting the year as a backup. He’s 4/4 this year with a long of 42 yards. That’s also his career long, so we shouldn’t expect a field goal attempt too far outside the redzone.
P Luke Larsen is averaging over 40 yards/punt, but the Pirates special teams squad has allowed two blocked punts. With that in mind, we’ll have to see what Coach Saturnio can dial up this Saturday.
Final Thoughts
Army opened as 13.5-point favorites. That line has since risen to 16.5 as of this writing. Despite last week’s line closing of nearly 30, this line feels like a much harder get given the nature of this week’s opponent.
We’re gonna hear a lot of noise this week. It’s reunion weekend. Army is playing as a ranked, undefeated team at home. Michie Stadium sold out more than two weeks ago. National reporters will be all over the Banks of the Hudson for this one. And last but certainly not least, Army QB Bryson Daily’s Heisman odds have gone from, “Huh, it’s funny that he’s listed,” to “Hell, I’d throw five bucks at that!” People who only peruse the “Top 25 Scoreboard” tab on their app of choice will suddenly see the Black Knights score this week and maybe their highlights, too.
Shut. It. Out. From what we’ve seen and heard, this particular Army team seems like they have the ability to turn down the volume and prepare for games. They’ll need to do just that — and play their best ball — to get a win this weekend.
Go Army, Beat East Carolina!!!
Cover image via @ArmyWP_Football.
** Editor’s Note: Per the comment below, this post originally stated (incorrectly) that the Mizzou win came in 2020. We misremembered that on the show last night as well. I caught it last night but didn’t correct it because I didn’t want to get into a needless tangentially discussion in the missle of the show. However, I straight-up missed it here. No excuse, sir!
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