Friends, as Army fans, we’re living good these days. Our beloved Army Black Knights now stand 5-0. They own the nation’s longest winning streak, stretching back to early November last year when they skull-drug the Zoomies at Mile High Stadium, ending the Air Force’s so-called perfect season. That game changed the fortunes of both schools. Air Force has yet to recover while the Black Knights now sit in first place in the American Athletic Conference, having notched four conference wins in the season’s early going.
We’ve said it a lot lately, but it bears repeating: THESE are the Good, Old Days.
We need to enjoy this run while we have it.
This week, Army looks to get bowl-eligible against a struggling UAB team that looks for all the world like it’s headed in the wrong direction. But no college football game is ever easy, and more to the point, we’ve seen a lot of messages get sent around the American Athletic Conference over the past couple of weeks.
The Black Knights have started receiving votes in both the AP and Coaches Polls, and folks are talking about them as potential Playoff contenders. If this team and this staff want to keep that talk going, they’ll need to not only win this week, they’ll need to send a message of their own to whoever cares to hear it.
Alabama-Birmingham Blazers
The Blazers have started 1-4 this season, 0-2 in the AAC. Worse, they’ve now lost twelve of their last seventeen games dating back to last season. That’s when they hired current Head Coach Trent Dilfer over would-be coach Bryant Vincent. While Dilfer has floundered, Vincent took the head coaching job and ULM and his his new WarHawks team off to a good-looking 4-1 start.
UAB had some buzz around its potential heading into the year, but since the Blazers’ loss to Navy, mainstream media commentators have begun saying things like, “The Trent Dilfer Experiment has failed.” To say the least, the natives are getting restless in Birmingham. Regardless of this weekend’s outcome, Dilfer seems unlikely to survive his second season as a college head football coach.
Honestly, the AFF Crew thought Dilfer might have gotten canned this past week. His team beat Alcorn State, 41-3, and they played tough at Arkansas of all places, staying competitive late into the second half. However, they then got absolutely gobsmacked at home in successive weeks by Navy and Tulane, the latter game producing the most lopsided score in the conference to date this season, 71-20. After Army dropped a score like that on Houston, the Cougars fired then Head Coach Major Applewhite straightaway.
This UAB team has some real talent, but we’re not sure what else. In fact, we’ve become a little curious to see how Army Head Coach Jeff Monken will describe them at this week’s press conference. The team has plenty of legit athletes, but they definitely do not look anything like “well coached” at the moment.
Offense
Florida transfer QB Jalen Kitna started for the Blazers this past Saturday against Tulane, going 20/41 passing (48.8%) for 239 yards, a touchdown, 3 interceptions including a pick-six, and 3 sacks. Kitna went in for UAB’s usual starter, QB Jacob Zeno, who has mostly played much better than that so far this season. To date, Zeno is an outstanding 82/118 through the air (69.5%!) for 819 yards and 6 touchdowns against 5 interceptions and a whopping 10 sacks. Zeno has also carried 27 times for 161 yards after adjusting for sack yardage (6.0 yards/carry). So Zeno, if he plays, has shown both an excellent completion percentage and the willingness/ability to use his legs when he needs to run. What he doesn’t have — in addition to a potentially game-ready shoulder — is a lot of help around him, either in pass protection or on downfield throws.
RB Lee Beebe Jr. has carried 65 times this season for 347 yards (5.3 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns. WRs Amare Thomas and Kam Shanks have collectively caught 40 passes for 398 yards and 4 touchdowns.
That all sounds good, but UAB has converted just 36.8% of their third downs this season (91st), and even when they do manage to put drives together, they haven’t been particularly successful at sustaining them all the way down the field. The Blazers have gotten down into the red zone just 17 times this season in 5 games. They’ve scored 4 rushing touchdowns from that same red zone against 3 passing touchdowns and 7 red zone field goals. This team punts a lot, but what’s worse is that they’ve also thrown 8 interceptions and lost 4 fumbles, yielding a net -9 turnover margin. That puts them in a three-way tie for 128th in the FBS. On average, this team loses a little less than 2 turnovers every single game.
All other factors aside, no one can win like that.
Defense
UAB’s real problems this season have mostly come on defense, especially via their rushing defense. On the season, the Blazers have allowed a whopping 227.2 rushing yards/game on fully 5.2 yards/carry (126th in the FBS). ULM posted 209 rushing yards on 4.4 yards/carry. Arkansas then put up 266 on 7.0 yards/carry, and it got to the point where this author thought the Razorbacks shouldn’t have thrown — at all — during that one. Navy *only* put up 227 yards rushing on 5.4 yards/carry. Then Tulane one-upped everyone by posting 317 on 6.3 yards/carry.
Bottom line, this UAB team just doesn’t tackle very well. When watching highlights from the Tulane game, it’s hard not to notice the number of shoulder-block tackles that don’t wrap, allowing Green Wave running backs to bounce off the hit en route to breaking off a big play. Tulane running backs must’ve gone for 130 or more yards on plays like that.
Again, no one can win like that.
S Sirad Bryant leads this team with 33 tackles, 13 solo, followed by LB Michael Moore and S Tyjon Jones with 31 tackles, 10 solo and 27 tackles, 11 solo respectively. Moore, the linebacker, has that group’s only interception. In fact, this defense has produced just 2 interceptions all season plus 1 fumble recovery, though they’ve posted 8 sacks.
Of note, UAB has the nation’s 7th ranked pass defense, allowing just 142.6 passing yards/game. That sounds great, but it’s probably more a function of this team’s struggles against the run than it’s a measure of their efficacy against the pass. This defense has given up almost 8 yards/attempt, so when teams hit passes against UAB, they tend to hit them BIG.
Special Teams
PK Jonah Delange has gone 9/9 on field goals this season with two made kicks of 40+ yards. He’s also hit all 11 of his extra points. Meanwhile, P Patrick Foley punted 5 times against Tulane, averaging about 45 yards/punt.
Notably, UAB gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown this past weekend to Tulane. As you might expect, that came off a missed tackle.
Final Thoughts
We got about midway through the third quarter this past week at Tulsa, and even just watching on TV, we could all tell that the Golden Hurricane just really didn’t want to be there any more. Now here comes UAB having lost four in a row, fresh off a 51-point home blowout that came on the heels of another lopsided home loss to Navy the previous week. Now they’re starting a two-game road trip, the coach is on the hottest of hotseats, and the starting quarterback is banged up.
They’re having a real one, friends.
So. Tulane sent a message against this team this past weekend, and as we noted in the opening, we’re wondering if Coach Monken might not want to send one back. If things break just right this week, maybe he’ll even hang Trent Dilfer’s hide on his wall right next to Major Applewhite’s. That’s hardly a guarantee, but it remains a very real possibility.
We’re expecting temperatures in the mid-70s this weekend under partly cloudy skies. It might actually get hot inside the stadium itself, though we think it’ll be chilly when you first get to the lots to start tailgating.
The line opened this week at Army (-18.5) and has since slid all the way to (-26) and counting. The Over/Under sits at 56. The game itself is hard to predict because while Army might win by 50, and they might also pitch a shutout, neither of those things seems particularly bettable, especially if the backups come in relatively early. Don’t know if there’s a prop bet out there on seeing Army plebe QB Ethan Washington get the first action of his career, but that’s something the AFF Crew would certainly like to see.
Enjoy the game, friends. We’ll see you out there!
Go Army! Beat UAB!!!
Cover image via Flickr: the U.S. Military Academy.
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