Army football now sits 2-0 for the first time in three years. The Black Knights offense hasn’t racked up this many yards in its first two contests since 2017. Is Army football’s “four yards and a cloud of dust” offense back? Or has their early-season success been a simple function of the match-ups they’ve faced?
This week’s opponent, Rice, is currently 1-2 with their lone win coming against FCS Texas Southern. Before the season, this looked like a game where most computer models and pro-bettors would have assumed Rice would have the edge heading into the game. However, Army has over-performed while Rice hasn’t performed much at all, and now this looks like a very different kind of contest.
Can the Black Knights hold their edge in a game where folks expect them to run wild?
Putting our first @American_Conf game in the win column.
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) September 11, 2024
Game 2 Victory Reel 🎥 pic.twitter.com/RkV1a3ZOl4
Rice Owls
Now in his seventh year as Rice’s Head Football Coach, Mike Bloomgren brings his Owls to the Banks of the Hudson for the second time in his tenure, the first having come in 2019. He had previously faced Army twice as an assistant coach at Stanford.
Despite two bowl appearances, Bloomgren has failed to produce a winning season during his time in Houston. A win this week would go a long way toward a potential turnaround this year, but another loss might have the Rice faithful questioning his leadership. Seven years is enough time to put one’s personal stamp on a program.
Offense
Owl’s starting QB E.J. Warner made a name for himself at Temple before transferring to conference-mate Rice this past offseason. Like his Super Bowl MVP father, Warner is much better as a pocket passer than he is as a runner. Warner has gone 59/95 through the air this season (62.1%) for 466 yards and 3 touchdowns against 4 interceptions and 3 sacks. That’s a slightly better overall completion percentage than he showed at Temple, but he has yet to look comfortable in his new offense against FBS opponents. Warner’s previous seasons saw him complete just 60% of his passes, but he previously threw for 2 full yards more per attempt and had a much, MUCH better touchdown to interception ratio. Warner put up 41 touchdowns against just 24 interceptions over two seasons at Temple.
RB Dean Connors has become the Owls leading rusher with nearly 200 yards on just 332 carries, good for fully 6.2 yards/carry. Connors has found the endzone a whopping 5 times. Add in another 18 receptions this season, and he becomes a major source of concern for the Army defense. Granted, Connors put up more than half of his season’s total production in Rice’s game against Texas Southern.
The biggest concern for Army is if Connors can substitute for the mobile quarterback role. Warner shouldn’t gouge Army for too many yards with his legs. However, if Connors can get Rice’s running game going, that sets up the kind of drop-back play-action passing game that truly favors Warner’s style. Warner has already shown a decided tendency towards throwing short, quick routes at Rice. That may give him an edge against Army’s traditional bend-but-don’t-break scheme, especially if the Owls can get the running game going. However, Warner will have to avoid turnovers if he and his offense want to be successful this week.
Connors for six! pic.twitter.com/RnP7ozrmq8
— Rice Football (@RiceFootball) September 15, 2024
Defense
On paper, Rice’s rushing defense does not look too bad. Currently ranked 86th in the FBS, the Owls have given up an average of 151 rushing yards/game on just 3.7 yards/carry. That’s about middle-of-the-pack for college football in every possible way. However, like all of Rice’s stats this season, that average is heavily skewed by the team’s outstanding performance against FCS Texas Southern. The Owls gave up just 38 rushing yards in that game on 1.1 yards/carry. By comparison, they gave up 178 yards on nearly 4 yards/carry to Sam Houston State and a whopping 237 yards on 5.6 yards/carry this past week to Houston. Worse, Rice’s leading tackler is CB Sean Fresch. Fresch has 14 tackles, 10 solo, plus 3 passes defensed. That’s great as far as it goes, but it’s as many solo tackles as Rice’s top two linebackers have combined.
With that said, Rice has an aggressive defense that mounts a terrific pass rush. This team has *14* sacks in just three games. That is a lot! However, they’ve had a hard time turning that into anything. This Owls defense forced 10 combined punts against Sam Houston State and Houston, and that’s good, but they also have just 2 interceptions. Similarly, they’ve forced 2 fumbles but recovered neither. That puts them at a net -3 turnover margin (109th in the FBS).
Defensively, Rice probably has all the pieces it needs, but the Owls just haven’t quite put it all together on the field. The defense can force stops but not enough to bail out an offense that is neither consistent nor particularly good with ball security.
INCOMING💥 @jpearcy4 gets the party started! pic.twitter.com/OFv5rsvFG5
— Rice Football (@RiceFootball) September 15, 2024
Special Teams
Rice’s PK Enock Gota is 2/2 on field goals with a long of 44 yards. He is also 9/9 on extra points. However, he’s never attempted a kick beyond 44 yards in his career. P Alex Bacchetta has punted far more than is desirable for the Owls. But he’s been particularly effective, though, averaging more than 42 yards/kick with just one touchback.
Final Thoughts
Army Football only has two data points so far this season, and one of them comes from a win over an FCS team. With that, the betting lines have been funky this week. The line opened at Army (-4.5). It then moved all the way to Army (-6.5). As of this writing, it’s back down to Army (-5.5).
Even the experts seem not to know what to think about either of these teams.
This will be Army’s first conference home game in the American Athletic Conference. Let’s hope the importance of the game doesn’t lead to dumb penalties and turnovers. This Rice team doesn’t seem like the type to come into Michie and win without also winning the turnover battle, so ball control will be key in this one.
It’s worth noting, too, that Rice is coming off of a Saturday night rivalry game against Houston where they got thumped badly. If we include a day of rest and a travel day, that gives the Owls just four days to prepare for the triple option. Meanwhile, Army will be coming off of a bye week and should be well rested. But the Black Knights were rolling before the break and will need to regain their momentum in a hurry this week. Thankfully, we’ve got no obvious “look ahead” games in the near future, so Army’s offense should be well prepared for Rice’s defensive scheme.
We ought to get good weather for this game. Temps should be in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies with dry conditions and no appreciable wind. Ought to make for a fine day for football.
Vegas thinks Army will score 24 points. This writer is slightly more optimistic.
Follow the Game
Coverage starts at noon Eastern on the CBS Sports Network. You can also download the Varsity Network app to hear Rich DeMarco make the radio call.
As always, follow the usual suspects on twitter for pre-game updates and in-game analysis — @asforfootball, @BrigadeReview, @DannoECabeza.
Go Army! Beat Rice!!!
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