The Black Knights have now lost four in a row, with their last two losses ending in shutouts. Along the way, the team played some tough teams, including a then-undefeated Syracuse squad, a rapidly improving team from Boston College that’s likely going bowling, the probable Sun Belt champs Troy, and an LSU team that was favored to make the College Football Playoff before the season started. Oh by the way, LSU could still very much make it to the SEC Championship Game if they can just get by ‘Bama, and if that happens, they may yet fool around and win the SEC outright.

This hasn’t been an easy slate — at all — but Army hung tough until their starting quarterback went out. That’s when the wheels came off.

Now looking to get right before heading out to Colorado to face the Zoomies of Air Force, Army faces a similarly struggling program in the UMass Minutemen (1-7). Can the Black Knights right their season and get back on the good foot? 

Let’s take a look.

It's a Michie Game Week. pic.twitter.com/oOkFLrMrqT

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) October 23, 2023

UMass Minutemen

UMass opened with an excellent offensive performance in Week 0 on the road at New Mexico State, winning a shootout 41-30. They then played one solid quarter of football against Auburn. That’s when college football writ large tumbled to the reality that the whole Minutemen offense revolves around the running abilities of transfer junior QB Taisun Phommachanh. 

UMass has struggled ever since. First, because Phommachanh has had trouble staying healthy, and second, because no part of the Minutemen’s game ever developed to compliment their offensive leader’s ability to change the game with his legs.

Offense

UMass has played four different quarterbacks this season, and indeed, QB Carlos Davis is actually their overall passing leader. However, Phommachanh is by far the best player on the team, and it’s a good bet that he’ll start this week, especially considering that UMass will be coming off a bye.

Phommachanh might be an elite running threat, but he’s also a good passer. He’s gone 73/116 through the air this season for 813 yards (62.9%) with 3 touchdowns against 3 interceptions. He did that in just three full games of action plus partial games on the road at Auburn and Penn State. The knock, though, is that he’s also taken a whopping *18* sacks for a net loss of -120 total yards. Wow! With that, Phommachanh has a net 42 carries for just 43 yards, averaging just 1 yard/carry overall. It’s not until we net out all of those sacks that we can see what this kid has really done this season — 24 carries for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s an average of 6.8 yards/carry.

So yeah. That’s pretty good.

Phommachanh’s running sets up RB Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams off the read-option. Lynch-Adams has 144 carries for just under 5 yards/carry with 6 rushing touchdowns. Had Phommachanh stayed healthy, though, Lynch-Adams might have doubled those numbers.

The Minutemen run about twice as often as they throw, but several receivers have still been productive in this offense. WR Anthony Simpson leads the team with 36 catches for 568 yards (15.8 yards/catch) and 3 touchdowns. That’s not bad, but this attack is still a short- to medium-passing game most of the time. The Minutemen don’t have a true downfield receiving threat.

📸 Practice pics #Flagship🚩 pic.twitter.com/eg8UGQJ8DI

— UMass Football (@UMassFootball) October 18, 2023

Defense

Though the Minutemen have had some success on offense this season, their defense has never really come around to match the offense’s production. Worse, they struggle badly against the run. In fact, the Minutemen boast college football’s 128th-ranked rushing defense out of 130 FBS college football teams. They allow a mind-bending 223.4 yards rushing/game on an average of 6 yards/carry. With that, opponents are converting almost 50% of their 3rd downs against this defense and fully 60% of their 4th downs.

Friends, it is very, very hard to win that way.

Bottom line, these guys are just not getting good play out of their linebackers. In fact, UMass’s leading tackler is CB Te’Rai Powell, who has 35 tackles, 19 solo. LB Gerrell Johnson stands second with 33 tackles but only 9 solo, followed by DT Billy Wooden. Moreover, just 2 of UMass’s top 5 tacklers are linebackers. The others are either defensive linemen or out of the secondary. Statistically, this means that if Army’s rushing attack can get past UMass’s D-Line, they have an excellent chance of getting into the second level for a big gain.

We should note, though, that UMass has been pretty good about forcing turnovers. They have 5 interceptions and 6 forced fumbles with 5 fumble recoveries. UMass’s offense has turned the ball over plenty this season, but their defense has generated enough turnovers that they still sit just -1 on turnover margin on the season.

JB Brown with the sack for an 8-yard loss#Flagship 🚩 pic.twitter.com/MjAtERu2Ej

— UMass Football (@UMassFootball) October 14, 2023

Special Teams

K Cameron Carson has been perfect on extra points this season, but he’s just 9/14 on field goals with 2 misses in the 30- to 39-yard range, 1 miss from 40+, and 2 misses from 50+ yards out. He hit a 49-yarder for his long this season.

P CJ Kolodziey averages just under 40 yards/punt, which is fine, but UMass hasn’t been anything like consistent on punt coverage. They allowed 2 punt return touchdowns against Penn State and gave up several returns in the 10- to 15-yard range against Miami (Ohio) and Arkansas State.

🎥 Coach Brown kicked off Army Week with his weekly press conference#Flagship🚩https://t.co/11H5SSR5IO

— UMass Football (@UMassFootball) October 23, 2023

Final Thoughts

If Army somehow starts QB Bryson Daily, WR Isaiah Alston, TE Joshua Ligenfelter, and RB Jakobi Buchanan — all key starters who sat against LSU — then they probably both win this game and cover the spread of -10 points. However, there’s no telling who’s going to start this week under center, and although plebe QB Champ Harris looked good in spots at LSU, he’s not nearly as well-prepared at this point in his collegiate career as Bryson Daily has been. Reality is that the Black Knights struggled to get their starter ready to run the new scheme over the offseason, much less their new recruits straight out of high school.

With that said, we at AFF would all like to see Harris get some extended work against a defense that’s not Troy’s and not LSU’s. We’d also like to see what he can do at Michie Stadium when it’s not raining sideways. 

Whatever else happened, Harris got thrown into the fire the hard way his first two times out.

Another day closer to Saturday at Michie. pic.twitter.com/MlOTEhfj1F

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) October 24, 2023

Good news is that we’re expecting mostly sunny skies this Saturday with temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. God willing, the Black Knights will run the rock, hold onto it securely, and bring home a victory.

Kickoff goes at noon. CBS Sports has coverage. 

Go Army! Beat UMass!!!

Cover image via USMA Flickr.