2022 has been a tough but occasionally triumphant season for the Army Black Knights. Now it all comes down to one final game in the greatest rivalry in sports.

A win this weekend will take the team to .500 on the year. That plus a win over their biggest rivals might just be enough to make 2022 a season to remember for Army Football.

It's #BEATnavy Week!#GoArmy | #IronSoldiers pic.twitter.com/M5kVuIqiQb

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) December 5, 2022

Army Black Knights

The Black Knights came within a missed 41-yard field goal of winning 5 of their last six games and — against all odds — of qualifying for a bowl game after a 1-4 start. As it is, alas, the kick went wide. The team therefore sits just 5-6 with this one last shot at redeeming their year by finishing par for the season.

Army remains the second-leading rushing team in college football with 304.4 rushing yards/game. As we’ve noted previously, however, this team has been considerably more explosive than past Army teams have been. Army offenses typically average something like 4.0 to 4.5 yards/carry. This year, the Black Knights have averaged fully 5.6 yards/carry and 6.1 yards/play overall. In terms of rushing explosiveness, that is good for 6th in all of college football.

But though Army has been explosive in 2022, it’s taken time for the team to come together in short yardage situations. Thankfully, they’ve been much, much better since the Air Force game. At some point, the staff started leaning heavily on their tackles in the power running game, and this has made a HUGE difference. Coming into Army-Navy, the Black Knights have converted 45.8% of their 3rd downs, good for 25th in college football. After a rough start, that is much more like what we expected to see coming into the season.

QB Tyhier Tyler leads all Army rushers with 120 carries for 601 yards (5.0 yards/carry) and 12 rushing touchdowns. He’s also thrown for 301 yards and 3 touchdowns against just 1 interception and 3 sacks with a 50% completion rate. By comparison, Army fullbacks have largely split the load, though FBs Tyson Riley and Jakobi Buchanan lead the team with 174 carries collectively for 770 yards (4.4 yards/carry) and 8 rushing touchdowns. The Black Knights have even gotten good production out of their slotbacks. Despite a rash of injuries at the position, the Army has four separate players with 11 or more carries for  7+ yards/carry on the outside.

Finally, the Black Knights possess both a potentially dominant possession receiver in 6’4” yearling WR Isaiah Alston as well as an occasionally game-breaking mismatch at tight end in 6’3” cow TE Joshua Lingenfelter. Army doesn’t throw a lot, but they’ve hit a decent number of big plays through the air, and they also have 5 passing touchdowns this season.

Things have been a little dicier on defense. The Black Knights have allowed 193.5 yards/game rushing this year on 5.1 yards/carry. This has not been ideal, especially between the 20s. It maybe makes sense, however, considering the teams this defense has played. The Army defense has spent most of the year in a bend-but-don’t-break scheme that prioritizes not getting beat deep and then playing good defense down in the red zone. 

Mostly, this has worked. The Black Knights have the 27th ranked red zone defense, having allowed 25 touchdowns and 8 field goals in 42 opponent trips downtown. Moreover, the Black Knights have made multiple goal line stands this year with more successes than failures on the season.

Army’s real problem was a rash of injury-fueled turnovers early in the year. As late as the Troy game, the Black Knights fumbled twice down in the red zone, killing prime scoring opportunities that they later needed. However, the Black Knights have been better down the stretch, and indeed, after forcing a bunch of turnovers in the last two games, Army now sits with a net turnover margin of +1.

Excited and honored to be the featured unit on this year’s @WestPoint_USMA Army Navy Uniforms! The legacy of the 1st Armored Division began with Operation Torch 80 years ago, and it continues with the Soldiers in our formation today! #GoArmy #BeatNavy #IronSoldiers pic.twitter.com/4ypbQOzjZ1

— 1st Armored Division (@1stArmoredDiv) November 28, 2022

Navy Midshipmen

Like Army, Navy got off to a tough start but has since done a lot to turn things around. The Squids started with losses to FCS Delaware and Memphis in games where their defense looked okay, but their offense didn’t do much. They then beat a good East Carolina team in overtime despite rushing for just 191 yards on 2.9 yards/carry. They lost to Air Force, 13-10, but then beat Tulsa in the first game this season that actually looked like Navy Football. After that, they lost to SMU and Houston, beat Temple despite losing starting quarterback Tai Lavatai for the season, lost to Cincinnati, came back on Notre Dame but fell, 35-32, and then finished the year by beating UCF, 17-14.

It’s taken time, but Navy’s offense eventually coalesced around the kinds of midline plays that we’ve often associated with Army under OC Brent Davis. The Squids have developed a couple of terrific offensive guards along with a very good inside runner in FB Daba Fofana. Fofana has 175 carries for 749 yards (4.3 yards/carry) and 6 rushing touchdowns. This has opened things up for QB Xavier Arline, who has 68 carries for 274 yards (4.0 yards/carry) with 3 rushing touchdowns in limited action. Fully 80% of Navy’s plays this season have gone to either the fullback or the quarterback, so bottom line, when Fofana has a good game, Navy has a good game.

Navy’s real strength this season has been their defense. They have the 4th ranked rushing defense in the nation, having allowed just 85.6 yards/game on 3.1 yards/carry. They’ve been much more susceptible to the pass, but they also blitz the crap out of people and get home — a lot! This defense has allowed 270.4 passing yards/game, but they’ve also gotten a whopping 32 sacks with 11 forced fumbles, mostly on strip-sacks.

Stat of the week: Navy has lost a whopping 15 turnovers this year but still sits +4 on turnover margin on the season.

The Squids have a bunch of good players, but the one to watch is LB John Marshall. Marshall has 88 tackles, 41 solo, 10.5 sacks (!), 7 passes defensed, 1 interception, and 2 forced fumbles. Wow! By comparison, LB Colin Ramos has *just* 71 tackles, 31 solo, 3.5 sacks, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery.

Congratulations @johndmarshall5 on being named unanimously to @American_FB 1st Team All-Conference#GoNavy | #RollGoats pic.twitter.com/g4d4cqgGY4

— Navy Football (@NavyFB) November 30, 2022

Keys Match-Ups

Army Defense vs. Navy Fullback Dive/Midline Option

Statistically, this game sets up a lot like the Air Force game but even moreso. If Army can bottle up Fofana and then force the issue with Arline, they ought to succeed on defense. Navy’s offense has gotten better over the course of the season, but they still finished with just 239.5 rushing yards/game on 4.0 yards/carry. That is not remotely ideal for a triple-option offense, especially one that passes as poorly as the Mids have this season.

Navy has been content to punt and play defense, both in this particular match-up and during the season overall. Why shouldn’t they be? Their defense has been outstanding. However, the Mids gashed Army off-tackle on first down all through the second half last year. The Black Knights will need to figure that out and win at the point of attack this year, or they will be in real trouble.

Army Off-Tackle Runs vs. Navy Linebackers

Navy’s defense has been very good this season, but then again, so has Army’s power running game, especially off-tackle. The Black Knights have played a lot of two-fullback sets often with unbalanced lines over the back half of the season, shifting the point of attack outside and letting QB Tyhier Tyler do his thing. You bring in two 260+ pound fullbacks, add in a 230+ pound blocking tight end, and tackles who can really run and pull, and it creates a LOT of power at the point of attack alongside a bunch of dynamic options on cut-backs and counters. This isn’t necessarily what we’ve seen from this team in this past, but it’s what’s been working this season.

For what it’s worth, Army ran this really well last year against Navy until LT Boobie Law went out of the game with an injury. Law is healthy now, and it’s made a monstrous difference to the offense’s performance. The Black Knights are going to need him — along with some quality lead blocking from their fullbacks — to get their offense going against this tough Navy front.

Army Passing Attack vs. Navy Blitz Schemes

The Black Knights should have a real advantage in the passing game if they can avoid getting smoked by Navy’s blitz schemes. This is easier said than done, but a couple of even small passing plays could make a huge difference this week.

Inspired by the 1st Armored Division, we will honor their fighting spirit and will to win. #GoArmy | #IronSoldiers pic.twitter.com/v9i4TWD8gK

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 28, 2022

Final Thoughts

The line on this game opened at Army (-2.5) but is currently available as a pick ‘em most places, and a couple of spots in New Jersey have the Black Knights getting a point or even a point-and-a-half. Statistically, it must be said that the Black Knights look like the better bet. Army is averaging 6.1 yards/play versus Navy’s 4.7, while both teams have allowed right at 6.0 yards/play on defense. Army has a marginally better scoring defense and — believe it or not — a MUCH better red zone defense. Finally, Army is converting nearly 50% of their 3rd downs while Navy gets just 39.1% of theirs.

A lot of this comes down to perception. People expect Army to win 9 or 10 games every year, and this year, that didn’t happen. Granted, the difference between 5-6 and potentially 8-3 was maybe a half-dozen plays total. Those plays didn’t go Army’s way this year. Back in 2017 and 2018, they definitely did.

What can you do? I still think this Army team is substantially similar to past Army teams. Not as good in run defense maybe but much more explosive on offense, and they played a much tougher schedule. They also suffered a bunch of key injuries early in the year, such that they’ve looked much more like themselves since getting some of those key players healthier.

We’ll see how that goes.

Weather in Philadelphia is expected to be in the low- to mid-40s under partly cloudy skies. We might see a little rain, but it’s probably just gonna get cold as the evening progresses. Maybe that favors Army, since they’ve already played a cold weather game and will have been practicing in similar conditions for the past two weeks or more. If so, that’ll be a minor advantage.

CBS has television coverage, starting at 3:00 pm.

Just going to leave this here. #BeatNavy @asforfootball @BrigadeReview @DannoECabeza pic.twitter.com/oAIA8VqZWp

— The Angry LTC (R) (@RobRobi00389452) December 6, 2022

Go Army! Beat Navy!!!