I love college football, friends, but despite a stacked slate with epic promise, this past weekend was mostly a miserable experience — at least for me personally. We saw Army get out to a little lead against Air Force only to no-show on offense in the second half, and then the Vols no-showed in their big game down at Georgia. I’m happy that LSU won, but overall, this was just not it. We were looking for excitement, and instead we got a slow-rolling disaster.

Our beloved Army Black Knights now have one last chance to get back on track. If they’re ever going to put it together, this must be this week. 

Otherwise, we’ll be down to a one-game season, and that rarely ends well. 

Unfortunately, the Black Knights face a very good, tough-nosed defensive team in the Troy Trojans. This at a time when they literally cannot afford another loss if they hope to make it to the Independence Bowl.

A new week. #GoArmy pic.twitter.com/p6GmH79JcH

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 7, 2022

Army Black Knights

There’s good news, and there’s bad news. The good news is that Army’s defense managed to hold the #1 rushing team in the nation to “just” 226 yards on 4.3 yards/carry. That doesn’t sound like an outsized accomplishment, but the Army defense allowed almost 1 full yard/carry less than they had been giving up on the season as a whole this past week, and that kept the team in the game for four full quarters. The bad news, unfortunately, is that Army’s offense absolutely could not get anything going in the second half. The Black Knights ran 23 plays for a net of something like 10 total yards. I mean, it was just awful. The Black Knights are still second nationally in rushing with 302 yards/game, but they’ve dropped all the way from 2nd to 7th nationally in yards/carry — in just one week! 

Air Force held Army to just 78 total rushing yards on a measly 2.2 yards/carry. More than any other factor, this was why Army lost.

It’s worth noting that Army’s once-potent passing attack is now in shambles. Five different quarterbacks have collectively gone 34/77 through the air (44.2%) for 747 yards with 5 touchdowns against a whopping 4 interceptions and 8 sacks. For those keeping score, Army quarterbacks get sacked almost 10% of the time when they drop back to pass. QB Jemel Jones in particular is completing just 34.5% of his passes with 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and 4 sacks. Jones gets sacked on fully 12% of his drop-backs; that’s the highest percentage on the team by quite a bit. Granted, Jones got put in some very tough spots this past weekend, but the numbers still say what they say.

Whatever Army’s plan was for Air Force’s pass rush and penetration at the line of scrimmage, it was so subtle that I missed it completely.

Truth is, this was the kind of loss that makes it hard to have faith in this team. If the Black Knights can’t somehow find a way to run the ball and play good defense at the same time — even against good teams — they’re not gonna have a lot around which to build an identity. Worse, here we are in mid-November, and we’re still wondering if this team can build an identity for itself.

So. Probably the toughest ask in the entire program this week starts in the coach’s office. How do you rebuild confidence after getting beaten that badly in just a few days? Because the reality is that these guys still have all the tools they need to succeed.

Troy Trojans

Friends, Troy is good. They are 7-2, 5-1 in the Sun Belt-West, with wins over FCS Alabama A&M, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, Texas State, South Alabama, and Louisiana. Most of those are good teams, and WKU, Southern Miss, and South Alabama all have strong, solidly winning records.

Troy runs a pass-first offense behind QB Gunnar Watson. Watson has gone 147/232 passing this season (63.4%) for 1,968 yards and 8 touchdowns against 8 interceptions and 22 sacks. Granted, those aren’t elite numbers. Indeed, 22 sacks is a LOT, and 8 interceptions is quite a few when measured against just 8 touchdown passes. Moreover, the Trojans average just 98.8 rushing yards/game with RBs DK Billingsley and Kimani Vidal averaging 4.8 and 4.2 yards/carry, respectively.

But. Troy has a legit, lock-down defense. Among other things, they allow just 113 rushing yards/game on just 3.3 yards/carry, and they’ve given up just 10 rushing touchdowns all year. They’ve been a little more susceptible through the air, allowing 216.1 passing yards/game, but they also have 11 interceptions this season. Still, they are currently -2 on turnover margin. That’s an amazing stat for a team with a winning record, especially considering how many turnovers these guys have forced from opposing offenses. Troy is also 103rd nationally in 3rd down defense, having allowed conversions on fully 42.1% of attempts this year. 

That, my friends, is terrible.

LB Carlton Martial leads Troy’s defense with 84 tackles, 37 solo, plus a half sack, 2 passes defensed, and an interception. He and his team get after the quarterback. S T.J. Harris has 4 sacks while DE T.J. Jackson has 6.5. As a whole, the defense has an outstanding *27* sacks on the season.

K Brooks Buce has been just okay for the Trojans. He’s 23/24 on extra points but 12/14 on field goals with his two misses coming from just 30+ yards out. For what it’s worth, Troy P Mike Rivers also gets a lot of work for this team. He often punts 5+ times/game, usually for around 40 yards/punt.

???????? ????????#RiseToBuild | #OneTROY ⚔️? pic.twitter.com/n8120vj5dm

— Troy Trojans Football 7x⚔️ (@TroyTrojansFB) November 6, 2022

Keys to the Game

I came into this preview thinking that Army was gonna get demolished down at Troy this weekend. However, this is a really good match-up for the Black Knights. If they execute their game plan with enough confidence and sheer, tough-nosed violence, there is absolutely no reason they can’t win this weekend.

Convert 3rd Downs

Troy has a great defense, but they’ve played a bunch of pass-happy teams from the Sun Belt. We know this because they’ve allowed 42.1% conversions on 3rd down despite having allowed just 3.3 yards/carry and generating a bunch of sacks. This tells us that the D-Line is excellent at pass-rushing but much less-good at short yardage defense. Bottom line, most of these Sun Belt teams have come in trying to throw and have taken a bunch of sacks. 

The Black Knights can make 3.3 yards/carry work. In fact, that might actually be better this week. Army just needs to stay on schedule and on the field, so that they can lean on this defense over the course of the game. If they can get decent push on 1st down, they can absolutely make this work.

Don’t Get Beat Deep

Troy doesn’t have the most consistent offense. They win defensive battles with a lot of punting. That’s fine. If Army’s defense can avoid giving up big plays, they can keep this game close and then grind their way to victory. Troy will be trying to do the same thing, so whoever wins the 4th quarter will almost certainly win the game overall.

Win the Turnover Battle

Both of these teams have turned it over a lot. Army needs to make that work and avoid putting the ball on the ground themselves. The good news is that as the team has gotten healthier, they’ve given up fewer fumbles. 

We need to see that again this week.

Final Thoughts

Army hasn’t beaten an FBS team with a winning record this season, but they’ve been close in damned near every game. This match-up in particular is a good one for the Black Knights. They’re playing a team that hasn’t seen the triple-option in a long, long time, and for as good as the Trojans have been overall, they’re not remotely an offensive juggernaut, and they’ve been lousy in short yardage situations on defense. Moreover, Army’s pass defense has been good this season. When they’ve struggled, it’s been against the run. So this is a strength vs. strength match-up on both sides of the ball.

The Black Knights need this game badly. They can get it, but they have to put everything together and play a complete game. I’m not sure we’ve seen that yet this season.

As of this writing, we’re expecting sunny skies this Saturday with temperatures in the upper-60s. Vegas has the Trojans favored by almost 10 points, which seems fair to say the very least. The Over/Under sits at 46.5, so if you must bet this game, you MUST take the Under. Troy held freaking South Alabama to 6 points and to 16 total points between both teams. Personally, I’ll be surprised if we see more than 25 total points in this one.

The game kicks at 3:30 pm on the NFL Network. I have no idea if they have a free trial version. I’m not a subscriber, either, so like you, I also have to figure something out before Saturday. As always, I’ll be listening to Rich DeMarco and his crew call the game on the radio via the Varsity app.

Go Army! Beat Troy!!!

*All pictures in this article come from West Point: The United States Military Academy on Flickr.