It felt damned good to get a win this past weekend. But Head Coach Jeff Monken put it exactly right in his postgame address to the team when he said, “That was Round One.”

Army got off to a tough start this season, but they have a real chance to seize momentum and get things going their way this week. They’re hosting Louisiana-Monroe, a much-improved but similarly struggling program in a game that is suddenly an absolute must-win for both teams.

Winning matters, friends. This week, it’s going to matter an awful lot.

Turning the page to another Michie game week‼️#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/hNgQr0fE2w

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) October 17, 2022

Army Black Knights

We’ve said it a zillion times this season:

Run the ball. Stop the run. Don’t turn it over. 

We saw exactly how that can work this weekend. Minus their top four offensive playmakers, the Black Knights still dropped 467 yards rushing on a whopping 8.5 yards/carry against FCS Colgate to win, 42-17. The Black Knights didn’t even stop the run particularly well on defense, but they ran it themselves, and they did a nice job of holding onto the football, and when just those two things were working, this game was not remotely close. Army got up 28-10 by the middle of the second quarter, and were it not for a flukey batted pass that was ruled to have gone backwards on review, this game probably would have finished 49-10. As it was, the game only looked somewhat close at halftime because of that flukey turnover.

Army might be struggling to stop the run this season, their defense has been very good against the pass and pretty good once opposing teams get into the red zone. In fact, they have the 30th-ranked passing defense in college football, allowing less than 8 yards/attempt and just under 200 passing yards/game. Considering that this team has played against three of the country’s very best passers — Coastal’s Grayson McCall, UTSA’s Frank Harris, and Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman — that is actually amazing. Similarly, though Army has given up more long scoring plays than we’d like to see, they’ve been good at defending the goal line. Opponents have scored just 19 touchdowns this year on *27* trips into the Red Zone, good for 55th nationally. Again, considering the number of turnovers we’ve seen the Black Knights commit in their own territory, this performance has been quite good.

Bottom line, this team has everything they need to get hot as we enter crunchtime. The offense is rolling, and though the defense is giving up yards between the 20s, they do a decent job tightening up near the end zone. The Black Knights just need to hold onto the ball when they’ve got it, and they’ll finish the year exactly where they want to be.

Hayden Reed helped us set the tone early in Saturday's win!

◾️ Career high 87 rushing yards
◾️ 1 TD
◾️ Averaged 7.9 yards per carry#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/XiNb01D9qw

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) October 17, 2022

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

The ULM Warhawks have had some of the same kinds of problems this year that Army has had. They’re now 2-5 with wins over FCS Nicholls and Louisiana plus losses to Texas, Alabama, Coastal Carolina, and South Alabama. They’ve done a decent job moving the ball in most of these games, but they’ve struggled to score as consistently as they could, and like Army, they’ve had some turnover problems.

ULM QB Chandler Rogers has gone 118/168 passing this season for 1,437 yards (70.2%!) and 10 touchdowns against 4 interceptions and a whopping 17 sacks. Rogers has also carried 83 times for 190 yards (2.3 ypc) and 3 more touchdowns. That makes him the second-leading rusher on the team by carries. But this is a team that runs about twice as often as they throw and yet averages just 150 yards/rushing per game. Add in 4 fumbles lost on the year, and… well, here we are.

This offense isn’t bad, but they’re still scoring just 22.3 points/game.

Meanwhile, ULM has been decent against the run, allowing just 150.1 rushing yards/game on an average 4.3 yards/carry, but they’ve been getting torched through the air. They’ve given up an average of 272 passing yards/game, and worse, their defense has actually regressed as the season has worn on. They gave up 246 yards passing and 187 yards rushing to Coastal two weeks ago. Last week, South Alabama dropped 615 yards of total offense on these guys, 420 passing plus another 195 on the ground. Wow.

Despite their record, this is emphatically not a bad team. But there’s also not a specific spot where they can point and say, “This is what we do well.” Add in the fact that they’re -2 on turnover margin, and that they started the season with games at Texas and at Alabama, and here we are. This Warhawk team is way better than the version that got dog-walked at Michie Stadium two years ago, but they don’t really have much to show for it. And now with just five games left in the season, they absolutely must win this week in order to keep their would-be bowl hopes alive.

From Online Columnist @PaulLetlow | Howell Emerging as ULM’s Big-Play Receiver@TyroneRHowell #ULMvsUSA #TheBestIsOnTheBayou #SunBeltFB https://t.co/Fp1ofsei2J

— ULM Football (@ULM_FB) October 16, 2022

Critical Match-Ups

Now that we’re into the heart of the season, we can really see the way Army’s strengths allow the team to play complimentary football. We’re gonna need exactly that this coming Saturday.

Army Defense vs. QB Chandler Rogers

Army’s defense has not been great at getting sacks this season, but they’ve gotten a decent amount of quarterback pressure at times, and their secondary has done a nice job taking advantage. Now we’re facing a quarterback who likes to throw deep — 7 different ULM receivers are averaging 11+ yards/reception — who is also a threat to run.

The Black Knights have struggled with this exact kind of offense all season. They will need to contain Rogers and force him to hit his checkdowns. As we’ve seen, Army’s defense can afford to give up some yards in the middle of the field so long as they play tight down near the goal line. ULM has struggled to convert in the Red Zone and score touchdowns. This is therefore a match-up that the Black Knights can exploit, but only if they can avoid getting beat over the top.

Army Offense vs. Turnovers

We know this Army Team can run the ball and put up points. They’ve been doing it all season; it doesn’t even matter who’s in the game. There are a lot of scoring threats on this team.

If the Black Knights can just hold onto the football and work their offense, they’ll give the defense a chance to get a couple of critical stops in the Red Zone, and we’ll all walk away happy.

That has got to start this week.

Proud of the way we secured the victory and we need to continue to improve! #GoArmy pic.twitter.com/pxrwPsoCwd

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) October 15, 2022

Final Thoughts

Army opened this week as a 9-point home favorite. The line has since slid to Army (-7). I wouldn’t touch that for any reason whatsoever. Meanwhile, the Over/Under sits at 56, and again, though I wouldn’t bet it, my gut tells me to take the Over. This game might’ve gone quite a bit differently a few years ago, but right now, I expect both these teams will put up some points. This might be the most explosive Army offense we’ve seen in the Monken Era, and though I think this defense is about to find its identity as a stingy bend-but-don’t-break Red Zone defense, that hasn’t — quite — happened just yet.

The pieces are there. It’s the consistency that’s been lacking.

As of this writing, the weather ought to be sunny with highs in the mid- to upper-50s at game time. It might well be chilly out there during warm-ups, but I expect it’ll be gorgeous by game time.

It’s gotta start this week, friends. Time to get on a roll!

Go Army! Beat ULM!!!

*Cover image via USMA Flickr.