The Army Black Knights are coming off two tough losses in a row, granted, to two of the very best teams in the Group of 5. This is not ideal, true, but it’s also not like the sky is falling. In fact, Army has played well both weeks, especially on offense. However, this team now needs a win — badly.
The good news is that we’ve got an FCS team coming into Michie Stadium this week in the Villanova Wildcats. The bad news is that these Wildcats are the defending Colonial Athletic Association champions, currently ranked 7th overall in FCS football.
FCS team or no, this week’s match-up will not be easy.
Your need to know heading into another home Saturday! #GoArmy pic.twitter.com/zCg2KEtPub
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) September 14, 2022
Army Black Knights
Army has found themselves in a strange place to start the season. They have the most efficient passing attack in the entire country by a wide margin, having completed just 17 passes for a whopping 446 yards and 4 touchdowns. Their rushing offense, however, ranks just 46th overall with an average of 190.5 yards/game on a respectable 4.1 yards/carry. They’re scoring 33 points/game, which would be more than enough most years. However, their defense has given up an average 39.5 points/game and 208 rushing yards/game on 4.7 yards/carry. Perhaps not coincidentally, Army has down a lousy job these last two weeks dominating time-of-possession. This has left their defense exposed to some high-powered attacks in crunchtime.
This is not what we usually see.
Army usually stops the run on defense and then gets after the passer, and they also — famously! — pound the rock to maintain game control, too. This season, they haven’t done any of that, save getting after the passer versus UTSA. In the Black Knights’ defense, we’ve seen two teams in a row stack the box with as many as 9 or more defenders, all but daring Army to try throwing over the top. The Black Knights have been able to make that work — frequently — and that’s good. However, their defense has been on the field a lot, and they’ve therefore given up an alarming amount of rushing yardage, especially in the second halves of these last two games. This has created chaos.
Despite having taken two losses, this team can still achieve all of its goals. They could still potentially win as many as 11 games this season, including a bowl game. They can still BEAT NAVY and BEAT AIR FORCE and claim the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. They had a tough start, but they can still have a great season. However, they’re gonna have to get their rushing defense fixed — immediately — or we’re risking bad trouble down the stretch.
Always keep the legs churning ??
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) September 13, 2022
FIRE THE BUCHANONS‼️ ???#GoArmy | @RossTuckerNFL pic.twitter.com/Z84ekZ4n1Y
Villanova Wildcats
Villanova went 10-2 last year, winning their conference and making it to the FCS Championship Tournament. They lost to South Dakota State in the playoffs, but this was still a great team that had a terrific year.
They picked up in 2022 right where they left off in 2021. In two games, they’ve beaten the holy Hell out of Lehigh and Long Island, having rushed for a total of 528 yards on 6 touchdowns on just 83 carries (6.4 yards/carry). They’ve also won their games this season by no less than 17 points.
QB Connor Watkins is an accurate, efficient passer, having completed 18/27 passes for 494 yards (66.7%) with 5 touchdowns against 4 interceptions and 2 sacks. He’s also carried the ball 12 times for 62 yards (5.2 yards/carry) and 2 more touchdowns. However, the real threat on this team is RB Dee Wil Barlee. Barlee has taken his 28 carries for an unbelievable 227 yards (8.1 yards/carry!) with 2 touchdowns. Basically, this kid has gotten loose for a long gain almost every time he’s touched the ball. On those rare occasions when the Wildcats throw, they tend to look for WR Jaaron Hayek. Hayek’s 10 catches for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns are more than the rest of his teammates combined.
To the extent that Villanova has problems, they’re on defense. The Wildcats have done a good job forcing their opponents to use a quick passing game to move the ball, but they haven’t been any better than Army at stopping the run. Villanova gave up 181 yards rushing on 4.8 yards/carry to Patriot League doormat Lehigh, and then they gave up 129 yards on just 26 carries to Long Island this past weekend. The Wildcats have been good at forcing turnovers, both fumbles and interceptions, but those overall rushing statistics are a little alarming as we head into the heart of the season. These Wildcats will not want to give up that kind of rushing yardage to any team with “Dakota” in its name.
Saturday’s Play of the Game vs. LIU is brought to you by @ODFL_INC! #BestintheGame #TapTheRock pic.twitter.com/oInLEP2VLk
— Villanova Football (@NovaFootball) September 13, 2022
Critical Match-Ups
It’s time to get back to basics. The Black Knights need to play Army Football.
Run the Ball
Villanova has a good secondary and a good pass rush, but they’ve been getting worked on the ground by teams that aren’t necessarily great at running the football. Army needs to take advantage, re-establish its identity, and remind everyone exactly what they’re in for when they come to Michie Stadium.
Stop the Run
We’ve seen the Black Knights give up entirely too much rushing yardage over the past two weeks. They’ve done reasonably well stringing outside runs out to the sidelines, but they’ve struggled with pure power runs up the middle.
This has to stop, time now.
Squad. #GoArmy pic.twitter.com/BWBig5wx0D
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) September 10, 2022
Final Thoughts
Villanova has a great team, but they’re not better than either Coastal Carolina or UTSA. Similarly, no one is arguing that this game will be easy, but FCS match-up or no, the Black Knights seemingly match-up a little better against this team than they did against either of their previous foes. They ought to be able to make that work.
They need to make that work.
There’s no betting line listed for this game, which is a little surprising. We’ve seen lines listed for other FBS vs. FCS match-ups, and this particular contest promises to be more competitive than most. Certainly, we ought to see the Army starters for four full quarters this week.
Thankfully, we’re looking at potentially perfect weather this weekend. Highs in the mid-70s with plenty of sun but not too much. CBS Sports has the call, for which Army fans everywhere will no doubt be grateful. Kickoff goes at noon.
I’m back!
— Ross Tucker (@RossTuckerNFL) September 9, 2022
Honor & a privilege to be calling all @ArmyWP_Football home games for @CBSSportsNet again this year. ?
Huge game vs. @UTSAFTBL tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/SXPQeS0pCQ
Go Army! Beat Villanova!!!
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