Coming off a tough road loss to a truly outstanding Coastal Carolina team, the Army Black Knights need to find a way to regroup, reload, and get back in the fight. It definitely doesn’t get any easier this week. No, this Saturday, Army hosts another terrific team with another terrific quarterback, the incumbent Conference USA Champion UTSA Roadrunners.
But hey. At least we’re not facing the mighty Blue Hens of Delaware.
Ready to be back at Michie this Saturday!#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/5eyOD640UR
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) September 5, 2022
Army Black Knights
Army’s offense showed a lot of encouraging signs this past weekend. They spread the ball around early, working in pitch plays and counters to keep the Chanticleer defense off balance. Later in the first half, they pounded the fullbacks, went on a long Army Football drive, converted multiple short yardage situations, and scored a touchdown. Army’s offense had rushed for 183 yards by the end of the half! And when CCU then started crowding the box, Army threw over the top and scored on long touchdown passes — twice. Granted, it would have been better had the Black Knights been able to control the line of scrimmage — and thus, time of possession — throughout the entirety of the game, but if the defense is daring you to throw over the top, you really have to at least try to take advantage.
Both quarterbacks made those long passes work. That’s not something this team has always been able to do.
The defense was less encouraging. They got zero sacks and not much pressure, and it looked like they were struggling to tackle one-on-one. But they couldn’t gang tackle much, either, because the Chanticleers did such a nice job distributing the football. Worse yet, Army gave up fully 263 yards rushing on 5 yards/carry.
The good news is that Army’s bend-but-don’t-break defense never gave up a big play over the top. The bad news is that they still only forced 2 punts, thereby allowing CCU to repeatedly drive the length of the field via short passes and simple power runs. With the offense living on quick strikes, this resulted in a whopping 12:30 time of possession advantage in favor of the Chanticleers. Army’s defense got gassed — doubly so given the heat and humidity in the stadium last weekend — and that was pretty much that.
Still, there is a template for success here. These guys need to make a few adjustments on defense and maybe take one fewer penalty on 3rd-and-long. That’s not a disaster. That’s a week of film study.
Some top shots from Saturday night under the lights.
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) September 4, 2022
Full Gallery: https://t.co/ph74TSnd0Q#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/cT2cF9bA6j
UT – San Antonio Road Runners
UTSA won 12 games last year behind a dynamic power running attack featuring an accurate, mobile quarterback in Frank Harris and current Las Vegas Raiders RB Sincere McCormick. Harris is back along with most of UTSA’s offense overall, but McCormick is obviously gone, as are UTSA’s previous offensive and defensive coordinators. It’s hard to know how much that will matter down the stretch, but last week the Roadrunners ran for just 104 yards total in a game that went to three overtimes. Outside of Harris scrambling for a 38-yard touchdown, their running game was pretty much nonexistent. Like Army, the Roadrunners lived on big passing plays when it mattered.
That is not remotely what these guys did in previous years.
UTSA played much better on defense. Though they returned just five starters on that side of the ball, this Roadrunner defense held Houston, one of the AAC’s most potent offenses, to just 24 points in regulation plus 140 rushing yards total on just 3.2 yards/carry. This was in a game in which the Cougars ran the ball 44 times! Moreover, this Roadrunners defense wracked up 4 sacks plus 5 additional tackles-for-loss and 1 forced fumble on Houston QB Clayton Tune. Houston had to score 17 points in the fourth quarter to give themselves a chance to win this past week, a thing they were only able to do because they’d held the ball for 35+ minutes of regulation and thereby gassed UTSA’s defense over time.
This edition of the UTSA Roadrunners looks like a big play team. Their last drive in regulation went 55 yards in less than ten seconds. UTSA K Jared Sackett then hit a 37-yard field goal to send the game to overtime, one of two he kicked from almost 40 yards out during last week’s game.
Focused. #210TriangleOfToughness #LetsGo210 | #BirdsUp ? pic.twitter.com/bPyZFAUpmd
— UTSA Football ? (@UTSAFTBL) September 6, 2022
Critical Match-Ups
It’s the same as last week, but even more so.
Army Defense vs. the Run
Was last week an aberration, or do we have a problem? Because Army is absolutely not going to win this game if UTSA starts running with power.
Army Pass Rush vs. QB Frank Harris
We’ve seen QB Frank Harris before, but we’ve never seen him at full speed. Still, Army’s defense has at least managed to put him on his back a few times when it mattered.
Harris completed 65% of his passes this past week, which is very good. However, that’s still almost 25% less accurate overall than CCU QB Grayson McCall was. We should see some more opportunities to force stops with a bend-but-don’t break defense. Harris is at least going to miss a couple of passes, whereas McCall didn’t do that… at all.
However, Harris is also a terrific runner, and if Army can neither keep him contained nor get pressure, they’ll be in bad shape.
Army Power Running Attack vs. UTSA’s Linebackers
The Roadrunners have at least 3 terrific linebackers — Dadrian Taylor, Jamal Ligon, and Trevor Harmanson. Those three guys led the team in tackles last week and thereby held a very talented Houston rushing attack in check.
It’s gonna be tough sledding this week. The Black Knights will need to get some push along the O-Line and grind away at these guys coming off a triple-overtime game that took their maximum effort.
Control the clock and grind away. That’s how Army wins. This is not a secret.
Is this holding? Serious answers only. #ArmyFootball pic.twitter.com/G2yEP0XnBm
— Black Knight Nation (@BKKnightNation) September 5, 2022
Final Thoughts
I don’t know how this game is going to play out, but mathematically, I think Army (+2) is a pretty good bet. Essentially, the bookies are saying that UTSA is 7 points better than the Black Knights on average on a neutral field. I very much doubt that this is true or that it’s what they meant to imply.
But the line is +2, and…
— Home field advantage is worth 3 points.
— UTSA coming off a triple overtime game is worth ~1 point.
— UTSA traveling west to east for an early kickoff is worth at least 1 point.
The Roadrunners have a good team, but they’re contending with a lot this week. Oh by the way, they’re also playing at Texas next week, as well. If they’d gotten a win against Houston, I’d have argued that this is a trap game for them. Of the three, I’d still argue that this is the least important to their program overall.
Weather for this game should be mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s. It’s liable to be hot down on the field, though, a factor that — paradoxically — might actually help the Black Knights.
Thankfully, CBS Sports has coverage this week. I’ll be at the stadium, but I don’t think any of us could take another game with ESPN+. And anyway, Ross Tucker is absolutely the best color commentator for Army games.
Kickoff goes at noon.
Pictured: an actual Army Tank
— Matt Drinkall (@DrinkallCoach) September 4, 2022
Vehicle Model: T-33 Buchanan#MakeFullbacksGreatAgain pic.twitter.com/iMHp6CjtfG
Go Army! UTSA!!!
Cover image via USMA Flickr.
2 Comments
Leave your reply.